AP Statistics Flashcards: Estimating Probabilities Using Simulation
Written by AP Content Team, Verified for 2026 AP Exams, Last updated: May 2026
Review key ideas with interactive flashcards. This set includes 16 cards to help you master important concepts.
What fundamental principle allows us to use simulation to estimate probabilities?
The principle is that the relative frequency of an event in a large number of simulated trials can be used to estimate its true probability.
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What fundamental principle allows us to use simulation to estimate probabilities?
The principle is that the relative frequency of an event in a large number of simulated trials can be used to estimate its true probability.
If you flip a coin 10 times and get 7 heads, what is the estimated probability (relative frequency) of getting heads?
The relative frequency, used as the estimated probability, is 7/10. This empirical probability can be used to estimate the true probability.
What is the relationship between an outcome and an event?
An event is a collection of outcomes. A single outcome can be an event, and an event can consist of multiple outcomes.
What is a random process?
A random process is one that generates results determined by chance.
What is an 'event'?
An event is a collection of one or more outcomes.
How can the probability of an event be estimated using simulation?
The relative frequency of an event occurring in a simulation can be used to estimate its probability.
To improve the accuracy of a probability estimate from a simulation, what should you do?
You should increase the number of trials, as stated by the law of large numbers.
Term: Relative Frequency
In a simulation, the relative frequency of an event is the proportion of trials in which the event occurs and is used to estimate probability.
If a simulation of 1,000 trials shows an event occurred 250 times, what is the estimated probability?
The estimated probability is the relative frequency, which is 250/1000 or 0.25.
What is simulation?
Simulation is a way to model random events, often to estimate probabilities.
How does the law of large numbers connect empirical and true probabilities?
It states that as the number of trials grows, the empirical probability (from a simulation) gets closer to the true probability.
Define 'outcome' in the context of probability.
An outcome is the result of a single trial of a random process.
Why is simulation a useful tool for studying random processes?
Simulation is useful because it provides a way to model random events and use their relative frequency to estimate probabilities.
Term: Empirical Probability
An empirical probability is an estimate based on the relative frequency of an event in a simulation or experiment.
A single trial of a random process results in what?
The result of a single trial of a random process is called an outcome.
What does the law of large numbers state?
The law of large numbers states that empirical probabilities from a simulation will approach the true probabilities as the number of trials increases.